Tuesday, August 04, 2020

July musings amid the Covid-19

Upcoming ....  financial concerns...

Fundamentally Unsound

"Overvalued markets can only be protected by destroying future investment prospects and by misallocating capital.

Of course, if enough holders were to attempt to sell their securities simultaneously, much of the presumptive “wealth” in overvalued market capitalization would vanish into thin air. In order to prevent the destruction of speculative wealth, the Fed would have to actually buy the overvalued securities, replacing the “speculative” currency held by investors with actual currency created by the Federal Reserve.

That’s actually what the Fed is doing here, despite the fact that it violates the Federal Reserve Act. Congress should not be misguided enough to allow the Fed to create U.S. base money in order to relieve investors of unbacked corporate securities. The Fed should not be allowed to shift the risk of unbacked corporate securities from private investors to the public.

The moment those securities lose value, the Fed will have effectively created money without taking enough legally-required collateral to protect the public from losses. This is quite literally a crime, akin to counterfeiting billions of dollars. George Floyd was killed over a sketchy $20."

"One of the most distressing aspects of the COVID-19 epidemic is how many people have been running their own little 5th grade science experiments on viral spread, to learn what science already ...My impression is that while the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 is likely due to accessory proteins of the virus that knock down respiratory defenses, the lethality of COVID-19 (the resulting disease) is largely due to infiltration and retention of highly inflammatory blood cells into lung tissue, that then degrade, perforate, and cross through the alveolar-capillary barrier. The result is cell damage to alveoli (the air sacs that the lungs use to exchange oxygen with the blood) and to vascular linings, so that fatality is driven by the combination of oxygen deprivation and thrombosis. This is not the flu....It is increasingly clear that the primary mode of transmission for SARS-CoV-2 is exhaled air from infected individuals...Yet even taking basic protective measures for oneself and others seems to be a problem. When people imagine that not wearing a mask in an indoor public place is somehow an expression of their “individual freedom,” or that it’s “hurting the economy,” they’re not only endangering everyone else – they’re also ensuring that much more stringent measures will be necessary later in order to avoid mass fatalities. It’s exactly the weak, dismissive response – especially early on, but then encouraged almost daily – that has put U.S. fatalities ahead of every other country on Earth..... It just requires enough common sense to use a combination of efforts to reduce infective contact by about 62% in order to substitute for immunity. That combination of measures includes setting gatherings outdoors when possible, keeping some social distance, maximizing fresh airflow, limiting group size, and wearing a mask in confined indoor locations like stores, elevators, offices, and shared transportation......  It’s estimated that about half of all COVID-19 cases may be asymptomatic. We also know that viral shedding (infectivity) can begin a couple of days before symptoms emerge. Between those two factors, it’s likely that most people are not even aware of when they’re most infective. That’s a challenging situation because it means that without reasonable precautions, lots of people will transmit the virus without even knowing it.... Over 35,000 Americans die in vehicle accidents every year. Seat belt use in the United States is about 90%. Roughly 10% of Americans don’t wear them. Half of all crash fatalities come from each of those two groups. That’s another way of saying that unclicking that belt results in a 9-fold increase in the likelihood a crash will be fatal. Vehicle fatalities are the leading cause of death between ages 5-34. I’m a big fan of seat belt laws, but if you choose not to wear a belt, at least you’re not hurting anyone else.When it comes to public, shared-airspace settings, using a mask isn’t about you. Refusing to wear one is like unclicking the seat belts of all of your passengers, and then texting while driving into oncoming traffic.

.https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc200712/

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